If another 9/11 happened before election day, would you suspect Bin Laden or Karl Rove?
(Not bin hiden as well as Bin Laden…?)
This from the International Herald Tribune:
They said McCain’s options for shaking up the race were essentially limited to game-changing performances in the final presidential debates or in Palin’s vice presidential debate with Joe Biden Thursday night. Short of that, they said, McCain can do little but hope Obama stumbles or an outside event breaks the Republican nominee’s way.
The ‘they’ mentioned above were, to quote the Herald, ‘several Republican strategists speaking on condition of anonymity to avoid angering the campaign.’
Well, I’m no strategist – and I’m certainly no Republican; since I’m from Holland you can call me seriously to the left of most US liberals – but let’s look at those three options anyway:
1) McCain truly winning in one of the direct debates
Rather unlikely, if look at the first debate. Of course, the Republicans and partisan media like Fox, called the first debate a victory for McCain – but most, more or less neutral commentators judged that neither of the two men ‘won’ in a way that was likely to make much difference come election day. So, I don’t think it would be wise to expect a much different outcome from the remaining debates.
2) Palin winning her debate against Biden
Rather unlikely squared. Obviously, Palin’s adoring fans will call her victorious whatever happens on the night but so far, whenever she has had to answer direct questions, the results have been rather distressing for the Republicans. There are, of course, those rather amusing witchcraft clips on Youtube, but, much more seriously, there’s the embarrassing and still unfolding fall-out from the Katie Couric interview on CBS (obviously, also on YouTube.) Anyway, I rather doubt Palin will be able to beat Biden to the extent that undecided voters will suddenly see the light and vote for the McCain/Palin ticket. (Honestly though, even if Palin were likely to win big, what does it say for the main candidate that he has to hope for his running mate to take care of business…?)
3)The ‘outside event’ breaking the Republicans’ way
Well, even when guaranteed their anonymity, these strategists didn’t dare to say what they, and most people were really thinking, to wit: Another 9/11. A successful terrorist attack on American soil would probably ‘break the Republican candidate’s way.’ The bumbling and by then deeply unpopular Bush would never have managed to win a second term without the 9/11 outrage – and McCain is certainly more competent than the 43rd president of the USA. So, yes, option three is definitely something that might actually do the trick.
My question to all of you, though, is: How many partisan, Swift boat style Republicans do you think are actually hoping – or actively praying – for such a timely act of God? More gruesomely to the point maybe: If such a calamity would occur, how many people in the US would immediately suspect Bin Laden – and how many would think ‘Karl Rove!’?
(Or yet another horrible remake…?)
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October 3rd, 2008 at 21:42
Ah, but that would still be quite telling, now wouldn’t it…?
Thanks for commenting,
J.
P.S.: I’m writing this after the Palin/Biden debate, in which Palin did quite well – and much better than expected. Still not good enough to win over enough of those independent & undecided voters, I’d say, since she didn’t score any real points off Biden, who was also doing better than I thought he would. In other words, I still think McCain’s only chance remains with option 3…
October 3rd, 2008 at 21:46
P.P.S.: In a way it is a pity that both did do well. Now I can’t really use that lame pun I’d been hoping to set loose on an unsuspecting world:
The “Pale Bidet Debate”
Ah well, so it goes,
J.